We are in the process of updating our model for the company and will soon release a fresh price estimate.
Revenues generated from the sale of oil and natural gas liquids contributes 51% of our price estimate for Exxon and a fall in oil prices could result in a significant downside to our price estimate for the stock.
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Intel is already a best-in-class performer, underscored by our price estimate which implies a healthy premium to the market price.
To show sensitivity, if you drag the trend line in the chart above 10% lower by the end of the forecast period, this results in about a 7% price estimate decline.
If growth in the average number of searches per user exceeds our expectations, reaching 55 searches per month by 2016, it could yield a 5% upside to our stock price estimate for Google and a 2% upside to our Yahoo estimate.
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We currently estimate the user decline to slow down in the coming years, but if Perfect World continues to cede ground to its competitors, the actual user numbers could fall much below our estimate, and this could mean a significant downside to our price estimate for Perfect World.
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Even a very conservative estimate of price elasticity (-0.1) would imply a 10% decline in volume in 2013 due to the base effect.
If however, Groupon had a greater impact on Expedia and its market share rose to around 3% by the end of our forecast period, this would imply around just over 10% additional upside to our price estimate and a combined potential upside of around 25% to the market price.
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The lower community forecast corresponds with a slight decrease in price estimate.
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Unfortunately, completion is too far out to estimate a price, but its creators are hoping to one day make it cheap enough for exterminators and contractors to purchase and use.
If total airline ticket queries increase to only 2 billion as opposed to 2.9 billion we currently estimate, we would see close to a 20% decline in our price estimate for Kayak.
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The median home price gives us a good estimate of where a market is.
The community forecast implies a slight upside to our price estimate for YHOO stock.
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The member estimates imply a small upside to our price estimate for Dish stock.
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If these forecasts both drop by about 10% from our end year forecast, they each shave off a few percent from our price estimate.
The BPP is an academic project based at MIT which seeks to use prices collected at hundreds of online retailers to estimate a daily price index.
The higher gross margin forecast for mobile flash memory cards and other SanDisk products has resulted in a large increase in our price estimate for SanDisk.
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Our new price estimate is at a premium of about 10% to current market prices.
For example, a 5% increase in annual spending in 2012 per customer translates to around a 2% improvement in our price estimate.
Our forecasts reveal that a 5% change in 2011 American Eagle revenue per square foot translates to a 2% move in the price estimate.
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We estimate that such a slowdown could have a negative impact of about 20% to our price estimate due to low international streaming subscriber growth.
This is because hardware constitutes a relatively smaller portion of our price estimate for IBM, making its stock value much less sensitive to changes in server forecasts.
The company is now making a greater push into healthy food options, which could expand Gatorade, Tropicana, and Quaker food operations, which account for a combined 31% of our price estimate.
By dragging the trend line in the market share chart below, we see that a one percentage point increase in market share by 2016 corresponds to roughly a 2% increase in our price estimate.
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If we were to assume that FIFA 12 will surpass the records created by FIFA 11, which we believe it can, a 15% increase in sales alone would imply a 2% upside to our price estimate.
There is a 10% upside to our price estimate for Capital One if the provisions for losses declined to 5% by 2012 due to falling delinquencies and stricter lending requirement which as a result of regulatory changes.
This scenario could reduce our estimates for the corporate and commercial banking operating margins from 56% at the end of our forecast period to about 45% and represent a 10% decline in our price estimate for Bank of America.
Since our price estimate already includes a healthy growth in diners seated over the future as well as the potential impact of the Foodspotting acquisition announced in January (see OpenTable Looks To Boost Diner Growth With Foodspotting Acquisition), we think that investors are underestimating the risks of its loss-making international business and its increasing operational costs.
The member estimates imply a downside of 13% to our price estimate for ARO stock.
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Such a scenario would add a further 10% upside to our price estimate.
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