If not, and those banks decide to instead sit on those reserves, or at least the greater part of them, we will likely see a precipitous fall in the rate of growth in the money supply, maybe even an actual contraction.

FORBES: Monetary Watch June 2011, Inflation prospects post QE II

We expect 1.7% growth in real personal consumption expenditures in the four quarters ending September 2008 even under our soft-landing scenario, below the 2% four-quarter low in the 2001 recession (see graph and further discussion in the attachment.) In recent years, we predicted and explained the resilience in U.S. consumption growth in terms of job prospects and the high actual household savings rate.

FORBES: Third Quarter Strength, Stagflation Ahead

The Bank of Communications forecast nominal growth for retail sales at 16 percent and actual growth rate at 12.5 percent this year.

FORBES: China Growth Seen Rebounding, But Inflation Warrants Concern