Just a few thoughts to ponder as the stock market tumbles, and big-picture analysis extends the trend of the last couple of years of dysfunctional politics in Washington, predicting dire long-term consequences, even as there is increasing evidence of work being done to reach a compromise and end the dysfunction.
To the extent that America's productivity upswing is structural (and sustained), one tool of monetary policy analysis the projection of a trend rate of growth is increasingly tricky.
Since this became a regular monthly feature, it has helped identify some very good trades as the analysis of the monthly charts can often help one better identify the major trend and important levels of support.
Mike Shedlock of Global Economic Trend Analysis was the first to pick up several problems with the details of the report and his analysis is worth a read.
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Some follow the traditional approach of looking at stock charts and moving averages to identify the trend of different players (technical analysis).
The seasonal trend analysis derived from over 30 years of data reveals that a low typically forms in July.
But reflecting the trend reported in the analysis piece, two of the companies that reported hiring plans, ManpowerGroup and Robert Half International, specialize in part-time placement, and said they planned to do a lot of hiring overseas.
The trend to sector-based analysis has intensified since the birth of the euro.
According to a pretty detailed analysis by UBS, such unwinding will become a reinforcing trend as the end of QE2 reverses capital flows into Treasuries, which, along with the overextended, overcrowded, and exceptional short positions in the U.S. dollar, will create a feedback loop.
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According to the 2012 Experian Automotive Loyalty and Market Trend analysis, 47.3 percent of all Toyota, Lexus and Scion owners return to purchase another Toyota Motor Corp. vehicle, which is up from 41.6 percent a year ago, and is the first time Toyota garnered the top spot in corporate loyalty since 2009.
Chart Analysis : The chart of the PowerShares QQQ Trust ( QQQ) came very close to the upper parallel trend line (line a) on Wednesday.
OFII's own analysis of the government's figures, also released Wednesday, shows an even broader long-term trend in foreign direct investment, often referred to in shorthand as FDI.
To determine trend changes, one of my favorite tools is the multiple time frame analysis of the on balance volume that I discussed in a recent trading lesson.
The real sweet spot, and we strive to do every day, occurs when you can use technical analysis to identify the market trend, and then trade the best acting stocks in the direction of that trend during rallies and bull market cycles, like we have seen recently with stocks like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), to name only a few.
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The resulting index is a mix of trend reportage, expert findings, data-rich analysis and future-positive prediction.
It should be noted that even if the December lows were broken, the long-term positive action of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator would still keep my long-term trend analysis positive.
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