The last time New York saw such severe restrictions was during the 1970s Arab oil embargo.

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In the Arab oil embargo in 1973 prices more than doubled in three months.

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Energy had peaked at 25% of the Index in the late 1970s, years after the Arab oil embargo.

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The stage is set, Grice says, for a permanent step up in grain prices, just as oil prices jumped following the 1973 Arab oil embargo.

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Number one, the Arab oil embargo and the subsequent increase in the price of oil in 1973 as a result of the Yom Kippur War really enriched Saudi Arabia.

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"During the 1973 Arab oil embargo Brazil was importing almost 80 percent of its fuel supply, " notes Mr. Luft, director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

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Jump back to 1975 and the institution of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements designed to limit our reliance on foreign oil in the wake of the Arab oil embargo.

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The only clear examples where prices were not lower six months after the initial price spike all predate an active crude oil futures market: the Arab oil embargo, Iranian Revolution, and Iran-Iraq wars.

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