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Special Offer: Manage the risks of the markets better with a free 30 day trial to the Multi-Asset Class Risk Management Portfolio.
FORBES: Connect
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Each year, I analyze the primary drivers of asset class long-term returns including risk as measured by implied volatility, expected earnings growth based on GDP estimates and foreign business expansion, market implied inflation based on the spread between long-term Treasury Bonds and TIPS, and current cash payouts from interest and dividends on bond and stock indexes.
FORBES: A 30-year Market Forecast
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Step 3: Create a realistic view of long-term risk and return estimates for each asset class.
FORBES: Investors Need To Make Money, Not Beat Benchmarks
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Note that, in warning against excessive concentrations or common exposures across the banking system, regulators need not make a judgment about whether a particular asset class is mispriced--although rapid changes in asset prices or risk premiums may increase the level of concern.
FORBES: Transcript
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If an asset class has unique risk, it will exhibit variability in a rolling 3-year correlation analysis similar to Figure 2.
FORBES: Basics of Asset Allocation (Part 2 of 2)
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Secondly there is the credit risk issue attached to the mushrooming of wealth-management products, an asset class of uncertain size and quality which banks created in order to attract deposits with higher rates of return.
WSJ: Philip Bowring: China Needs a 1997-Style Crisis