Probabilities are applied to that scenario and a baseline established.

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To make the debate on NHS reform comprehensible, and the claims testable against evidence, what we need is some form of baseline scenario that explains the level of productivity improvement needed to keep health costs below double their present cost.

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Under the baseline scenario net interest payments would hit about three percent of GDP in the 2020s and then drop.

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According to their baseline scenario, U.S. GDP is expected to grow just 2.2% this year and 1.8% in 2013.

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