Now everyone is seeing black swans everywhere, suggesting that the cognitive bias might have shifted.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
Does this cognitive bias cause one sports team to judge itself superior to another?
This observation is consistent with a well-documented cognitive bias known as anchoring and adjustment.
Nassim Taleb advanced the notion that investors have a cognitive bias against events they have never seen.
FORBES: Christmas, Kurtosis, Fat Tails, Black Swans And Risk Management, Pt. 2
For decades, psychologists have debated whether narcissism is a form of self-delusion, a cognitive bias, or a self-serving social strategy.
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According to Dr Rudin, the attitude that cognitive bias can somehow be willed away, by education, training or good intentions, is still pervasive.
So how can you help your brain make a decision based on the actual desirability of the outcome instead of on habit or cognitive bias?
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In investing, a negative cognitive bias can take many forms.
What I am suggesting is that sometimes, the when a negative event happens, investors overreact, throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and the collective negative cognitive bias often pushes a stock down by more than what the bad news and all its implications should result in.
According to Norah Rudin, a forensic-DNA consultant in Mountain View, California, forensic scientists are beginning to accept that cognitive bias exists, but there is still a lot of resistance to the idea, because examiners take the criticism personally and feel they are being accused of doing bad science.
Just consider the prevalence of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.
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