He may be right, but such curve-fitting reasoning is an example of confirmation bias.
WSJ: Matt Ridley on Confirmation Bias and Global Warming | Mind & Matter
Confirmation bias exists everywhere, true enough, but it exists rather glaringly in the world of partisan polling.
The confirmation bias, in which we give much greater credence to evidence and data that bolster our beliefs.
He goes on to point out that Hauser is more guilty of confirmation bias than out and out fraud.
The IPCC, in other words, learned the hard way the value of letting mavericks and gadflies challenge confirmation bias.
Confirmation Bias adds the poison to this mix because once we take a position we are unlikely to change it.
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These are the bits that relate to confirmation bias the most: they reinforce our values, no matter what their actual content.
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Remedy: When we make a major decision such as accepting (or turning down) a job offer, we tend to exercise confirmation bias.
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The reporting of climate in the media is full of confirmation bias.
WSJ: Matt Ridley on Confirmation Bias and Global Warming | Mind & Matter
After all, Dr. Broecker and his followers, too, may be emotionally invested in his ice-sheet theory: Confirmation bias can affect us all.
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Two concepts, Argumentative Theory and Confirmation Bias, can explain much of this.
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No, the reason that science progresses despite confirmation bias is partly that it makes testable predictions, but even more that it prevents monopoly.
Carried away by confirmation bias, scientists modeled the future worsening of malaria, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change accepted this as a given.
Scientists who neglect to check their pet theories at the door leave themselves open to confirmation bias (especially when performing studies that are not blinded).
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The second of three columns on the topic of confirmation bias.
The final column of three on the topic of confirmation bias.
WSJ: Matt Ridley on Confirmation Bias and Global Warming | Mind & Matter
The entire series may just be an exercise in confirmation bias and catharsis, a bandwagon for journalists to eagerly jump on to boost their sagging pageview numbers.
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Confirmation bias is the ability of the mind to seek out evidence that conforms to its own theories and simply gloss over or completely ignore contradictory evidence.
Much published research on the impact of climate change consists of confirmation bias by if-then modeling, but critics also see an increasing confusion between model outputs and observations.
WSJ: Matt Ridley on Confirmation Bias and Global Warming | Mind & Matter
But you have to make a herculean mental effort to prevent anecdotal data from feeding a confirmation bias that essentially tells you what you want to hear.
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Fraud, plagiarism, cherry-picked results, poor or non-existent controls, confirmation bias, opaque, missing, or unavailable data, and stonewalling when questioned have gone from being rare to being everyday occurrences.
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Just consider the prevalence of cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias.
Our attention to video games in the cases of some shootings but not others is what psychologists call confirmation bias, and it creates the illusion of a correlation where there is none.
Confirmation bias is a type of selective thinking in which we tend to notice and look for that which confirms our beliefs and positions, and to ignore or undervalue the relevance of anything that is contradictory.
But the next time you think that peer review is unbiased, think of confirmation bias, pal review and Climategate, and try to figure a way out of the mess that climate science has gotten itself into.
In fact, studies have demonstrated that confirmation bias transforms the exchange of information during discovery proceedings into a more polarized and certain sense on each side that they are right and good and their opponent is wrong and evil.
How can we avoid confirmation bias?
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The physicist Robert Millikan (who showed minor confirmation bias in his own work on the charge of the electron by omitting outlying observations that did not fit his hypothesis) devoted more than 10 years to trying to disprove Einstein's theory that light consists of particles (photons).
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