Econometric models I look at suggest unemployment averages over 9 percent through 2015.

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Mr Varian and Ms Choi show that the addition of these search trends to econometric models improves the accuracy of their estimates.

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But it turned out to be deeper than we knew or most of the econometric models showed, most of the blue chip estimates.

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Do our modern day econometric models have the ability to understand the impacts of fiscal retrenchment after a financial crisis having been calibrated in a period of excessive leverage?

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The Federal Reserve has some make that many of the best economists in the world who are capable of doing the most sophisticated statistical and econometric studies and using the most sophisticated models for forecasting.

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