Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
Today, as the Electoral College votes are cast and counted state-by-state, we will be reminded why.
New Hampshire, with its four Electoral College votes, will virtually disappear from the national political radar.
Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral college votes, has long been seen as a vital swing state in presidential elections.
The 2010 census added two additional representatives, giving the Sunshine State a total of 29 Electoral College votes.
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In that case, he would have over 300 electoral college votes, making American high school students pretty good forecasters.
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Not in the mid-west: he scooped up 100 electoral college votes from the region in both 1992 and 1996.
State votes are converted into Electoral College votes, and generally, the state's winning candidate gets all the state's electoral votes.
Obama is trailing badly in a number of battleground states he must take to get a majority of electoral college votes.
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In the state-by-state election battle, Mr Obama has so far won 303 electoral college votes to Mr Romney's 206 (with 270 required for victory).
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If the battleground states with the most electoral college votes all swing towards the same candidate, the overall result could be called early on in the night.
All in all, Romney has a tough battle ahead -- even stringent counts of Electoral College votes based on polls show Obama within striking distance of winning.
Since the number of Electoral College votes is based on population, it is worth understanding what has happened in Ohio that explains their loss of two electoral votes.
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The candidate who wins 270 electoral college votes becomes president.
The 1990 census gave it 25 Electoral College votes because based on its population it had 23 members in the House of Representatives and the constitutionally mandated two U.S. Senators.
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To win 270 Electoral College votes, he will have to keep Republicans energized, increase his support among independents, seniors and the middle class, and make inroads among Hispanics and young voters.
We started by using the total number of Electoral College votes, 538, and assigning the 36 Olympic sports with a proper share, based on the number of athletes in each sport.
An Obama-Kaine duo would almost certainly put Virginia's 13 Electoral College votes even more in play for the first time since 1964, shifting the battleground to Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes.
The popular vote remained close for Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, but electoral college votes which is what brings a candidate to the White House has clearly put Obama over the top.
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As in the 2000 election, military voters this year are likely to flock to Mitt Romney and provide the margin of victory he needs in Florida to add 29 Electoral College votes to the Republican total.
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Many told Alexander they were lobbied or pressured by someone to change their allegiance -- sometimes in person, sometimes by anonymous e-mails and phone calls -- in the period between Election Day and mid-December, when the Electoral College votes.
But after the Electoral College votes, or at any time during a Bush Administration, Bush's choice to succeed Cheney would have to be approved by both houses of Congress, a process set out in the 25th Amendment to the Constitution.
This could hurt the state's junior (Republican) senator, Spencer Abraham, who faces one of the toughest re-election races in the country, strengthen the Democrats' position in the state legislature and even send Michigan's 18 electoral college votes to Al Gore, a determined opponent of vouchers.
If Mr Bush can win them all or all but Al Gore's home state of Tennessee (which has only 11 votes) the vice-president needs to win 259 of the remaining 391 electoral-college votes.
Both are swing states whose electoral-college votes could determine the outcome of the 2012 presidential race.
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Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico account for 20 electoral-college votes, compared with 18 for perennial swinger Ohio.
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So 13 electoral-college votes can mean a lot when the national electorate is evenly divided, as it is today.
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Virginia currently has 13 electoral-college votes, reflecting the fact that it has two senators and 11 representatives in Congress.
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As the most populous state, California holds over one in ten electoral-college votes.
Politically, Ohio is the most important because of its large endowment of electoral-college votes and its history of picking presidential winners.
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