If governments continue expanding money supplies, the cost of credit will not rise even as commodity markets do.

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Last year's subprime-fueled gridlock in the credit markets even spread to high-quality debt, however, as investors realized that the re-packaging and re-distribution of risky loans could signify a ticking time bomb in all corners of credit.

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Default risks, as measured by credit default swaps, are on the decline in the emerging markets and even better than a number of European countries.

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If the credit squeeze spreads and borrowing becomes harder, not just for housing but across other parts of the debt markets (such as commercial property or credit cards) money-market funds could withdraw even further from lending to banks.

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