Investors have been trying to stay afloat amid crosscurrents of conflicting economic data, yet it all boils down to one key question: Is the decline in housing a statistical anomaly related to the expiration of the first-time home buyer credit or is it a leading indicator of another sharp decline in the housing market?

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Housing starts declined more than economists anticipated in May, following the expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit.

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Miller points to the first-time home buyer tax credit of 2009-2010, when there was a surge in activity up until its expiration.

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At first, Congress didn't give the IRS authority to immediately reject taxpayers claims for the first-time home-buyer credit if they lacked proper documentation.

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Example: The first-time home buyer tax credit (available to those with a contract in place by Apr. 30) may have simply accelerated planned purchases of houses.

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Earlier this week the feds sued two Miami preparers, alleging they falsely claimed the first-time home buyer's credit for dozens of clients.

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