Might the incumbency advantage save the Tories from the expected drubbing on May 1st?

ECONOMIST: Incumbency

If Rogan doesn't seek re-election, Republicans lose the advantage of incumbency in the district.

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Yet the advantage of incumbency that helped him did not save unpopular governors.

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In Britain, unlike America, the advantage of incumbency used to be weak.

ECONOMIST: Incumbency

On the other hand, Mr Howard has the advantage of incumbency, a successful record as a ruthless political strategist and an economy that is humming into its 16th year of uninterrupted growth.

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The advantage of incumbency may be growing further.

ECONOMIST: Incumbency

Incumbency is normally a huge advantage in an election, but it's become an albatross, as New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg can ruefully attest after nearly losing his reelection bid to an incompetent, underfinanced and largely unknown opponent.

FORBES: Active Government = Unstable Economy