The 1996-97 data indicates that the index is more of a trailing indicator than a leading indicator--consumers get confident after things get good, not before.

FORBES: Stocks Conned By Confidence

Whereas big swings in oil prices usually reflect supply shocks, and precious metals are often seen as a safe haven in times of crisis, The Economist's commodity price index (which excludes oil and precious metals) has traditionally been a fairly good leading indicator of turning-points in global industrial output.

ECONOMIST: The prices of most raw materials have been surging