Manned aircraft may be replaced in part by unmanned aerial vehicles and satellites, he predicts.
The military originally had envisioned a drone that could stay in the skies hours longer than a manned aircraft.
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Consequently, its options for contending with rapidly escalating long-range threats from places like Iran are limited to manned aircraft and its suspected nuclear arsenal.
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Since current unmanned aircraft lack the agility and situational awareness of manned aircraft, their performance is relatively clumsy even if their endurance is considerably greater.
Manned aircraft will still be front and center, including the Navy's EP-3E (the one forced down in China earlier this year) and the Air Force's Rivet Joint.
They collect vital intelligence for warfighters at every level in the chain of command, sometimes loitering silently above enemy formations far longer than any manned aircraft could.
Drones allow us significantly greater control, oversight, and review before a shot is fired than occurs using manned aircraft or other operations conducted by soldiers, sailors, airmen or Marines.
With manned aircraft, carriers are not a cost-effective way to counter insurgents and terrorists, and will face budget cuts in order to fund other, less costly sources of airpower.
With manned aircraft, carriers cannot counter cruise and ballistic missile threats from a survivable distance, and will face budget cuts on grounds of vulnerability, just as the new class of destroyers did last month.
Yet as UAV technology improves they are set to become an even more important part of security and military operations -- part of a system that gathers and relays information to other drones, ground control, manned aircraft and satellites.
Aboulafia derides the exaggerated sales expectations that companies have for the systems, noting that his consultancy estimates the value of world unmanned aircraft output today at only 2.5 percent of the amount for manned aircraft, and forecasts it will remain below five percent in 2020.
Congress has legislated goals for replacing manned military aircraft with unmanned systems, and every major defense contractor is marketing products that contribute to the trend.
One of the few remaining and, arguably, most significant issues to be resolved is the fate of the SR-71, the United States preeminent manned reconnaissance aircraft.
They cannot perform the kinds of maneuvers typical of manned tactical aircraft, and their flight routes are usually planned carefully with an eye to local weather conditions.
This has generated legitimate concerns that UAVs could be used by the government in ways that infringe privacy rights, particularly in light of three 1980s-era Supreme Court decisions that found no Fourth Amendment violation in warrantless observations from manned government aircraft.
In the two decades since the Cold War ended, the number of domestic missile producers has declined from a dozen to four, the number of naval shipbuilders has shrunken from six to two, and the number of companies that can build manned military aircraft has been cut in half.
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The Navy is developing stealthy strike aircraft, both manned and unmanned, that will allow aircraft carriers to accomplish wartime missions against the mainland from far away.
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This concept emphasizes the ability of new weapons, sensors, and unmanned systems to expand the reach, capability and persistence of our current manned ships and aircraft.
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The idea was to build scores of new cutters, small boats, manned and unmanned aircraft, all with complementary electronics and design features that worked in unison.
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Unlike in Afghanistan, where the U.S. can operate largely without fear of the drones being shot down, there are a number of countries in the Pacific that could face off against American aircraft either manned or unmanned.
At al-Hisha and other bases near Beida, youths captured tanks and anti-aircraft guns and turned them on the few bases manned by katibas literally brigades, but more closely resembling militias flown in from Tripoli.
While no effort was made to define or formally approve consensus positions or recommendations, the summary of the proceedings offered powerful arguments for fielding a large and flexible manned bomber force for the indefinite future, with a fleet of more than 20 B-2 aircraft as its backbone.
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