This is further evidence to support my belief that the business of market prediction is about good marketing and not about good prediction.
According to Intrade, a Vegas-style prediction market, Obama has a 60.5% chance of beating Romney.
But a badly-designed prediction market in cybersecurity could still produce major conflicts of interest.
FORBES: CIA Investors Aim To Build A Pseudo-Gambling Market For Data Security Predictions
Another prediction market, operated by NewsFutures, ran for a while on the website of Technology Review.
Launched in August 2011, Bets of Bitcoin is an anonymously-operated prediction market using the cryptographic money bitcoin.
FORBES: Prediction Market 'Bets Of Bitcoin' Available To U.S. Customers
Regardless, regulation by CFTC or any U.S. regulatory body should not even be the objective of prediction market sites.
FORBES: Prediction Market 'Bets Of Bitcoin' Available To U.S. Customers
Perhaps the best way to find out when prediction markets will finally take off is to ask your employees using a prediction market.
ECONOMIST: A novel way of generating forecasts has yet to take off
Netted also suggests double-checking your wagers against another prediction market, InTrade, where the action for Best Picture shows Hurt Locker and Avatar way way ahead of the pack.
The Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency (DARPA) even launched its own prediction market known as FutureMAP for intelligence purposes in 2001, though the program was canceled for political reasons in 2003.
FORBES: CIA Investors Aim To Build A Pseudo-Gambling Market For Data Security Predictions
Even with this mixed picture for the technicals in the stock market, my prediction remains that Dow Transports and Russell 2000 will continue to lag 2011 all time highs at 5, 627.85 set on July 7 and 868.57 set on May 2.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission, an entirely useless clubhouse for lost souls that interferes with trading in a manner so unpredictable as to be nearly random, this week forced the online prediction market InTrade, which is based in Ireland, to shut down to U.S. customers.
FORBES: CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler Pulls A Captain Renault Over InTrade
But I'm not about to ratchet up my prediction, because now the market is priced for perfection in an imperfect world.
So he has to make investment decisions now based on his prediction about what the broadband market will look like five or ten years from now.
Then, when his original prediction went wrong, when the entire market was closed down, he thought that it would become legal again.
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Add it all up, and my prediction is that 10 years from now, market shares will be reversed.
If this prediction plays out, we should see a stock market sell-off in late 2010 as individuals take profits and sit on the cash.
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His prediction was therefore that some method of cutting the foreign companies out of the market would be made.
FORBES: Zynga's Shares Rise As Legal US Online Gambling Is Mooted
But then he hit a wall: Either he could write equations that looked like the stock market but didn't allow him to predict stock price changes in any meaningful way, or he had a prediction system that did not account for wild price swings.
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