In his latest shareholder letter, Tocqueville Gold Fund chieftain John Hathaway bases that forecast on continued negative real interest rates: That is, as long as central banks push interest rates below the rate of inflation, gold performs well.

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Our fifth indicator is the real rate of interest, which is negative in over half of the economies.

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In our negative real interest rate environment, the market has begun to put a premium on the certainty of income.

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This is not true currently in the United States, where we have negative real interest rates, basically guaranteeing that the income generated from US government bonds will not outpace the rate of inflation.

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