New oil is coming from almost everywhere, a mix of big and small, OPEC and non-OPEC.
As new production comes online from OPEC and non-OPEC nations alike, the Saudis will likely need to trim back again, to 8.5 million.
"The market doesn't distinguish between an OPEC and a non-OPEC producer, " he says.
If anything the flat price of crude could be influenced more by political implosion across producer states from correcting prices, rather than any meaningful cooperation between OPEC (Saudi) and non-OPEC (Russian) heavyweights.
But Opec hawks Iran, Libya, and Algeria warned in a statement that market stability is a responsibility of non-Opec as well as Opec producers, implying they might oppose the production increases.
Non-OPEC supply jumped from 27 to 41 million barrels per day in response to the embargo.
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That's because non-OPEC producers pumped more valuable light crude to counteract the effects of OPEC's cheating.
And reports of lower-than-expected production from non-OPEC countries are only further exacerbating the market's distress.
Non-OPEC suppliers, meanwhile, have plans to tap several new fields in the coming months.
Despite Saudi efforts, their Muscovite counterparts were simply in no fit state to help moderate prices across non-OPEC production.
Of course non-OPEC reserves are always being depleted and always increased, by discovery and development in old and new areas.
The big producers, along with some of their non-OPEC friends, need to sit down and thrash out production levels and pricing.
Outside of Opec, of which Russia is not a member, the country is the No. 2 after Canada of non-Opec oil producers.
Out of desperation, Exxon, BP and others poured billions into non-OPEC areas such as the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and Alaska.
On balance, non-OPEC production has gone from 26.2m barrels a day in 1973 to 45.4m in 2001, and is set to keep rising.
But there is still weakness in non-OPEC supply: oil prices could yet rebound in the second half of the year, reckons Mr Norrish.
Peak demand seems unlikely before 2015, but positive revisions in non-OPEC supply suggest 75 percent of incremental demand this year and next is covered.
Further, the recent experience has tended to be that non-OPEC supply has a tendency to disappoint in aggregate, even with strong U.S. growth in hydrocarbons.
For 2013, three of the forecasts shown expect non-OPEC supply outside North America to rebound from declines in 2012 to a modest increase in 2013.
In 2012, the growth of U.S. oil supply saved the market from significant supply-side tightness given the scale of non-OPEC supply disappointments elsewhere, like in Brazil.
The tepid supply forecasts for non-OPEC oil producers in 2013 are not strong enough to represent any break in the fundamentals that would be unmanageable for OPEC to chip in and cover.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency, non-OPEC output appears to have peaked in 2006 at just above 51 million barrels per day (bpd), and fell below 50 million in 2008.
Lynch sees the cushion climbing to 4.5 million bpd in 2007 as the Saudis bring the Khursaniya field into service but cut back elsewhere to make a place in the market for non-opec growth.
When oil and gas from the finds started flowing into commercial markets around the world during the '80s, it rapidly became "one of the world's key non-OPEC producing regions, " according to the Energy Information Administration.
The incentive to cheat grew even stronger as non-OPEC suppliers, especially Russia, grew in importance. (Russia's output has increased by 2m bpd every year for the past three years.) OPEC's current production of around 30m bpd (including Iraq) is well above its official quota of 26m bpd.
In addition to OPEC's attempts to increase supply, the International Energy Agency also expects non-members to boost output by a combined 1.2m bpd over the coming year, of which around half will be from the former Soviet Union.
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