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On federal lands, Shell has been researching methods to cook oil out of the shale (basically oil-soaked rock) without mining it or polluting groundwater.
FORBES: OutFront
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Operated by Anadarko with 30%, that well was another monster, going down more than 31, 000 feet in 5, 800 feet of water, and discovering a remarkable 1, 000 feet of oil-bearing rock with very promising reservoir properties.
FORBES: Tiny Dallas-Based Oil Company Scores Two Giant Deepwater Discoveries In One Week
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Bissell found out that some rock oil was a by-product obtained by drilling for salt.
FORBES: Magazine Article
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It's a guess based on how much is known, and likely new finds, and how much technology might improve over the next few decades at extracting oil from those hard-to-reach rock formations.
BBC: Fact check: The boys from the black stuff
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Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, pumps millions of gallons of water mixed with fine sand and chemicals deep into oil and gas wells to crack gas-bearing rock.
WSJ: NY groups claim industry bias in fracking study
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But this was Bissell's vision of the "new new thing"--get sufficient volumes of rock oil by drilling for it refine it into a high quality illuminating oil, and then take market share away from existing illuminants and, at the same time, build wholly new markets.
FORBES: The Pennsylvania Start-up That Changed The World
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Fred returned to the U.S. on the eve of World War II and built an even larger fortune around Rock Island Refining, a refinery and oil-gathering pipeline system in southern Oklahoma, and a part-interest in a refinery outside of Minneapolis.
FORBES: Inside The Koch Empire: How The Brothers Plan To Reshape America
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Gas does now contribute 35% to power generation, but rock-bottom prices and a sniffiness about gas as oil's poor relation mean that exploiting its bounty (Saudi Arabia apparently has the world's fifth-largest gas reserves) has proven hard.
ECONOMIST: Gulf states not only pump oil; they burn it, too
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Fracking uses high-pressure mixtures of water, sand or gravel and chemicals to crack rock formations and release oil and natural gas deep underground.
NPR: Scenic, Struggling S. Illinois Braces For Oil Rush
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Gamma-ray emitters bounce atomic particles off rock formations to see the size, density and flow of oil reservoirs.
FORBES: Magazine Article