Goldman Sachs's calculations suggest that, to reduce growth from 4% to 3%, (an optimistic estimate of America's new sustainable growth rate) the financial conditions index would need to increase by 1.25 percentage points.

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Even that is probably a wildly optimistic estimate.

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We are optimistic on our estimate largely because of the shift away from paper based transactions which will drive sales on credit cards and debit cards.

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Though the Dryosaurus is in good shape, with 80% of its skeleton intact, Miles says he's afraid Chait's estimate is overly optimistic in this climate.

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Worst of all, that estimate is wildly over-optimistic because it ignores the giant, enormous, egregious tax shelters that would allow all moderately clever millionaires to slash their tax liabilities.

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Amazon's estimate of "a few seconds" is a bit optimistic, but it did take less than a minute before a PDF we sent ourselves popped up on our homepage.

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The forecast, contained in its most recent East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, is 0.3% higher than its last estimate for the period and is in line with increasingly optimistic consensus views.

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Though we estimate modest declines in coming years, the average forecast of Trefis members is more optimistic and predicts prices will remain close to 2009 levels.

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