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Most people believe that an inverted yield curve heralds a recession, and right now we have an inverted yield curve at the point where new money is supposed to enter the economy.
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Only an inverted yield curve would signal recession.
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"There is a growing feeling that the MPC has misjudged the severity of the recession and is therefore behind the curve, " said Edward Menashy, chief economist at stockbrokers Charles Stanley.
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But does all the previous reluctance of central bankers to act have them so far behind the curve of a potential global recession that by the time the actions are announced, implemented and begin to have an effect, it will be too late?
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As for the next financial crisis, which will most threaten the highly-leveraged, nothing in the Dodd Frank act, or any specific regulation, precludes the Fed from once again deliberately inverting the Treasury yield curve and triggering the next recession and credit crunch, as it has done so frequently in the past.
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Yield-curve critics say there are better leading indicators for a recession, such as housing permits (which tend to peak 17 months before the recession starts) and consumer confidence (which dips 3 to 9 months ahead of a downturn).
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