While in secular bull markets the very long-term trend is up, in secular bear markets the very long-term trend (17 years typically) is sideways to down.
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In the wake of the last major sideways secular trend, U.S. stocks barreled higher in a major long-term secular bull market from 1982-2000.
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The best buy list is based upon disruptive technology in a long-term secular growth trend, sustainability, market leadership and valuation.
The longer term secular bull trend in gold remains firmly in place.
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So, inside the longer-term secular bear market, you get what I call mini bulls and bears, what some people call cyclical bears and cyclical bulls.
One interesting point I found is that generally in a longer-term secular bear market, the absolute low of that bear market is generally reached in the middle of the bear market.
The longer-term secular bull trend for gold remains bullish, and there remains plenty of fodder on the horizon to help trigger another explosive up move in the yellow metal in the days and weeks ahead.
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The longer-term secular bull trend remains intact.
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He believes the relationship between home values and spending is not straightforward, arguing that it is too soon for a cyclical bond-market rally to begin and that a secular, or long-term, rally is unlikely.
Such strategies and long-term outlooks work well in secular bull markets.
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And what I mean by secular bull and bear are these are longer-term phases.
Can secular markets be used to help you make long-term investment decisions?
Unfortunately, over the very long-term the market cycles back and forth between secular bull markets and secular bear markets on a quite regular basis.
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Also, what will be the impact of the long-term cultural movement away from consumerism and toward a Secular Spiritualism that places greater value on a simpler life?
In the long-term, the rebuilding of Pakistani civil society and restoring secular government and the rule of law is the only promising way to deal successfully with the Islamist threat.
Though business trends decelerated in the fourth quarter, we remain focused on new product development and market share gains to offset the secular declines in the PND industry and the continued generation of long-term shareholder value.
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But of course for that positive for gold to be a factor, that it tends to move opposite to the stock market in its long-term moves, the stock market would have to go into another correction, extending its secular bear market.
What we may term valuephobia is manifested in some of the debate around issues of tolerance, diversity and the secular Society.
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In our view, Och-Ziff offers favorable long-term growth prospects, as inflows are beginning to accelerate and the company starts to benefit from increased secular demand for alternative asset managers with consistently strong performance records.
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