Lawrence Summers, America's treasury secretary, attracted attention recently when he likened the new-technology boom to a positive supply-side shock, the converse of the oil-price shocks of the 1970s.

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Volpon thinks that a renewed supply-side shock could likely lead to similar, if not worse, outcomes as those in 2011.

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First, an oil-supply shock resulting from an Iranian crisis, say would send fuel prices sharply up again and wipe out profits.

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"Bad news would be a supply shock - if you did have a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or a war in the Middle East, " Koll said.

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It is concerned about the impact of the oil-price shock on the supply side of the economy.

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In fact, we could be just one supply shock away from a full-blown food crisis that would make the price spikes of 2008 look like a happy memory.

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But it is certain, as opposed to merely likely, that the recent oil-price hike is a substantial negative supply shock.

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With global demand for oil growing by 1-2% a year, there are persistent fears of a supply shock.

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