Ezekowitz also publishes a "survival analysis" method that put Harvard's win probability Thursday at 21.4%.

WSJ: NCAA Tournament: Harvard Outsmarts Harvard

His system for forecasting the entire bracket uses survival analysis, a method for predicting failure in systems, and gives Florida a 15.7% chance of winning the whole thing, also the best of any team.

WSJ: Hoops Nerds Tap the Florida Gators