Translation, if one were to start with a pre-trial null hypothesis probability of 50% (reflecting equipoise, an ethical prerequisite for randomizing patients), the post-trial null hypothesis probability would still be 9%, which is not sufficient to change my practice.

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You are right, the Milankovitch forcing argument is ONLY A NULL HYPOTHESIS. I hope I haven't argued anything more than that.

WSJ: Climate Emails: Science and Candor