In the former instance, Lynas reminds me of a young Sir Mark Sykes carving the Persian Gulf into sovereign political states in the wake of World War One without recognizing the most salient assumptions implicit in those political boundaries and the vast consequences they would create.

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Most Middle East analysts make two fundamental errors: They have a static perspective that simply extends the present into the future in a straight line, and they tend to focus on Egypt, where one-quarter of the Arab League lives, while ignoring the North African and Gulf states where important changes are underway.

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One reason for the United States' great success in the Persian Gulf War was the willingness of Saudi Arabia to allow American forces to use bases on its soil.

CENTERFORSECURITYPOLICY: Center For Security Policy