To the extent that America's productivity upswing is structural (and sustained), one tool of monetary policy analysis the projection of a trend rate of growth is increasingly tricky.
It says only that the Tories will reduce and simplify taxes but increase public spending in real terms provided that the increases are within the trend rate of growth of the economy.
Forecasts for growth in 2001 have been falling, although the average prediction of 2.3% made by The Economist's panel in May was still only a little below the trend rate of growth.
Likewise, low growth that is below trend in an economy with a high trend rate of growth (perhaps because of a fast-growing labour force or high productivity growth) will feel like a recession and will cause unemployment to rise.
In the short run that includes keeping fiscal-easing measures in place, at least until there is less deflationary slack in the economy. (So far the government has prevaricated about the need for continued fiscal stimulus.) In the longer term, it should strive to raise Japan's trend rate of growth, which many reckon has fallen to about 1% a year from 1.5-2% previously, as the population shrinks.
On the basis of the past few years, he thinks the trend rate of productivity growth - and thus the economy's potential growth rate - is lower than we thought before the crisis.
The Bank is forecasting a rapid economic expansion of nearly 3.5% this year, well above the trend growth rate of 2.5%.
The economics research group said that the UK would return to its trend growth rate of 0.2%-0.3% in the coming months.
If so, output will in total have fallen by almost one-third relative to productive potential (as measured by the economy's trend growth rate of 7%).
There is upside to Microsoft should the PC market be able to sustain its recent growth trends. (See Microsoft 30% Upside if PC Growth Maintains Current Trend.) We currently estimate a growth rate of roughly 10% for global notebook and netbook units sold going forward, implied by our price estimate that currently stands about 18% ahead of market value.
The main conclusion from this demographic work is that, barring a new increase in female labor force participation or a significant increase in the growth rate of the population, these demographic factors point towards a further decline in trend growth of employment and hours in the coming decades.
The OBR projections assume a rapid short-term recovery and GDP growth then settling at a trend rate of 2% from 2016.
The problem is the rate of growth, which is at or below trend, according to Bernanke, and only absorbing new entrants to the labor force.
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Although Greenland has recently been experiencing a slight warming trend, satellite measurements show that the ice cap has been accumulating snow growth at a rate of about 2.1 inches per year.
We expect the natural gas production volume to follow an increasing trend, crossing 1300 mcf by the end of the Trefis forecast period, an average annual growth rate of around 5%.
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Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 -- the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast.
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The trend has emerged even more strongly during the holidays with holiday online sales expanding at a rate of 15% whereas retail growth for the season is expected to linger around 3-4%.
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Its reading of 0.58 in January, barely changed since October, suggests growth is slightly above its trend rate.
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