Yet the global carry trade - one of the key features of the credit bubble - could well come under pressure.
然而,全球套利交易——信贷泡沫的主要特征之一——很可能会受到压力。
WHEN pundits worry about the distorting effects of cheap money on asset prices, they invariably single out the carry trade as a cause for concern.
当学者为低息贷款对资产价格的扭曲而感到担忧时,他们总是指出套利交易是应引起注意的一个原因。
Then the currency engaged in carry trade most was Yen for its interest rate was very low. And many carry trade's targets were Australia dollar and New Zealand dollar.
当时进行套利交易的货币主要是日元,因为当时日元的利率很低,有很多套利交易的标的是澳大利亚元和新西兰元。
However, later we found that, as a matter of fact, a large number of housewives in Japan were involved in the carry trade and it was hard for prevention.
但是,后来人们发现,实际上是大量的日本家庭主妇在做这件事情,而要想制止家庭主妇做套利交易,难度非常大。
Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns.
当日本的套利交易进入冷酷的颠倒状态的时候,没人提醒他们出了什么事,如每次轮回时一样。
But who cared about the theory when, for a long time, the carry trade produced bumper returns?
但在套息交易长久以来都带来丰厚回报的情况下,谁又在乎理论怎么说呢?
The carry trade, analysts and policymakers complained, had driven the yen to unnaturally low levels.
分析师和决策者抱怨,利差交易已使日元降到非自然的低水平。
What is more, a powerful resurgence in the carry trade seems unlikely.
更甚者,利差交易不太可能会有强有力的复苏。
Nobody really knows how big the carry trade is.
套息交易的规模到底有多大无人知晓。
So far, however, there has been no sign of such a shift; indeed, higher Treasury yields may only encourage the carry trade.
但是,至少现在还没有这样的改变,事实上,更高的国债利率可能仅仅鼓励了套利交易.
What worries me from the current industry perspective was that the end investor was probably overweight in the carry trade.
根据目前行业的现状,令我担心的是,终端投资者可能增持了套利交易。
But in fact it was a number of Japanese housewives who worked at carry trade. This means serious difficulty to prevent them.
但是,后来人们发现,实际上是大量的日本家庭主妇在做这件事情,而要想制止家庭主妇做套利交易,难度非常大。
Indeed some vulnerable countries, such as Turkey, benefited from the "carry trade" as investors piled into their currencies because of their high interest rates.
实际上,一些类似土耳其那样比较脆弱的国家由于“息差交易”才使得投资者蜂拥而至。
So experience suggests that the carry trade, as applied to government bonds, is not a particularly appealing strategy.
所以,经验说明,套息交易应用于不是特别有吸引力的策略。
But many of these strategies were variants of the carry trade, which changed the face of the finance sector.
但是,这么多战略都是套利交易的变种,金融的改头换面。
The similar situation also grips the global financial market. Carry trade is an example we talked much about recent years.
全球金融市场也存在类似的情况,比如前几年我们讨论比较多的套利交易(Carry Trade)。
Now markets have reached a stage, in the biggest economies at least, where the carry trade looks hard to pull off.
现在,至少在大的经济体中,市场已经到达了一个难以将套息交易剥离出去的阶段。
But why does the carry trade work?
但套息交易怎么会行得通?
If the carry trade is now part of a bygone era, so is the weakness of the yen.
如果现在套息交易变成了往事,那么同样意味着日圆疲软也成为了过去。
Later, people found out that in fact it was Japanese housewives who were behind this, and it was extremely difficult to prevent them from Carry Trade.
但是,后来人们发现,实际上是大量的日本家庭主妇在做这件事情,而要想制止家庭主妇做套利交易,难度非常大。
Then, who were doing the carry trade?
那么,究竟是什么人在做呢?
Exceptionally low global financial-market volatility in the middle of the decade helped spur the famous yen carry trade.
在这个十年的中期,极低的全球金融市场挥发性帮助日元成为著名的利差交易货币。
It is worth wondering whether the carry trade has been exaggerated.
这值得人们怀疑利差交易是否被夸大了。
The main money in the then Carry Trade is the yen, because its interest rate was. Money used also includes the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar.
当时进行套利交易的货币主要是日元,因为当时日元的利率很低,有很多套利交易的标的是澳大利亚元和新西兰元。
It is another version of the "carry trade", in which investors borrow in low-yielding currencies and buy higher-yielding ones.
这是另一种的“套息交易”——投资者借入低收益的货币的同时购买高收益的货币。
Again, this was a version of the carry trade: they used their cheap financing to buy higher-yielding assets.
这里再次出现了套息交易的说法:他们用廉价的资金购买高收益资产。
Due to its extremely low interest rate, Japenes Yen became the main currency for Carry Trade, and the object currency was the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
当时进行套利交易的货币主要是日元,因为当时日元的利率很低,有很多套利交易的标的是澳大利亚元和新西兰元。
Due to its extremely low interest rate, Japenes Yen became the main currency for Carry Trade, and the object currency was the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.
当时进行套利交易的货币主要是日元,因为当时日元的利率很低,有很多套利交易的标的是澳大利亚元和新西兰元。
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