-
The idea of risk, that economic risks can be pooled, is an intuitive one that has occurred to people throughout history.
风险理论，即认为经济风险可以分摊，是历史过程中,人们逐渐发现的理论。
-
That's what, in principle, we can do and what I think is the most important concept in finance--this concept of risk pooling.
原则上，这就是我们能做的,我认为这也是金融业最重要的概念,即风险汇聚及分摊。
-
If we could do sort, then we saw, if we amortized the cost, that searching is a lot more efficient if we're searching a sorted list.
如果我们可以做排序，然后我们可以看到，如果我们分摊开支,在有序列表中搜索将会变得更高效。
-
If there's a tie then the voters split.
出现平局时选票会分摊
-
The problem is that while the principle of risk-sharing is very simple and obvious the practice requires technology.
问题在于,尽管风险分摊原则,听起来浅显易懂,但是实践仍然需要技术支持。
-
But, because of the logic of risk management we have to make a deal with them; so, it becomes more formal and impersonal.
但是，基于风险管理的逻辑,我们必须和他们达成协议;,使分摊正规化而不受主观情绪的影响。
-
It's a continuation of the second lecture, where I talked about the principle of dispersal of risk.
作为第二节课内容的延续，当时我讲过关于风险分摊的原则。
-
So, the idea that theorists suggest-- and it may be unreachable-- but the perfect financial system would have all of our risks pooled completely.
理论家提出的这一理论-,可能无法达到-,但是一个完美的金融体系,能够将所有的风险完全分摊。
-
On the other hand, am I likely to only search a list once? Probably not. There are going to be multiple elements I'm going to be looking for, so that suggests that in fact, I want to amortize the cost.
我可能就搜索一次么？,可能不是，可能我要找好多个元素,这样的情况下,我们就能分摊开销了，这告诉我们什么？这意味着。
-
It really is probability theory and the idea of spreading risk through risk pooling.
就是概率论,以及通过风险汇聚来分摊风险
-
There's also a problem with risk-sharing at that level.
还有另一个风险分摊程度的问题。
-
Diversification and pooling are really the same thing but we had a separate set of institutions.
分摊和汇聚实质上是一回事,只是我们有不同的机构
-
We want to share things, but we want to get more scientific about how we share things and that means-- and we want to be effective.
我们才想要分摊风险，但我们得用更科学的方式,也可说是更有效率的方式-,来分摊风险。
-
The best you can do sharing among yourselves is sharing your own risk, the risk of your own community; but your own community goes up and down and you're not sharing widely enough.
你们所能做的仅仅是在成员之间,分摊自己的风险，即你们这个小团体的风险;,但由于共有背景下的正相关性,你们的风险无法摊薄。
-
The voters of that position split evenly.
即该立场的选票会被平均分摊
-
Anytime there's a risk that hits one person or one country the financial markets would spread it out over everybody and it gets very small.
如果有风险袭击一个人或者一个国家,金融市场就会将风险分摊到所有人身上,风险就变得微乎其微。
-
In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory.
第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊,那节课的主题是,一门数学理论，即概率论。
-
Well, they would probably agree that we'd do some risk-sharing, right?
也许会达成共识,我们来分摊风险，对吧？
-
The problem is that if you want to do risk-sharing, you're not, ideally, sharing with someone who's just like you living in Israel, working in a certain agricultural industry-- because there are lots of risks that you've already shared.
如果你真的想要达到风险分摊的效果，理论上说，就不应该只和与你的同伴,比如同住在以色列，一样从事农业的人来分摊-,因为你们承担的许多风险是正相关的。
-
You should be sharing your risks with someone who's completely different-- probably living on the other side of the world in a completely different industry, where the weather, the institutions, and the political situation are completely different.
你应该跟,与你截然不同的人-,也许是住在世界另一端的人,从事毫不相关的行业的人，生活在完全不同的气候，制度，以及政治环境里的人来分摊。
-
So, that means we have to devise ways of sharing with people that we've never met, that we don't care about--I mean, maybe we care about everybody, but we don't have any particular emotional ties to them-- and they're very different people.
那意味着我们必须设计一些方法,使我们与素未谋面的，并不亲近的人们一同分摊风险，也许我们非常博爱，但未必对所有人都会怀有特殊情感-,分摊者应该是与我们非常不同的人。
-
It doesn't work so easily to share with those people along the lines that these communities--I think these communes tend to emphasize a social compact, a feeling for each other, a caring for each other, which is a lovely thought but it doesn't achieve risk management on a big scale.
但要实现跟满足这些条件的人分摊风险,绝非易事,这些共同体。。。我指这些公社,倾向于强调一种社会凝聚力，一种人与人的深情和关怀，这个想法听上去很美,但无法实现大规模有成效的风险管理。
-
Now I'm in better shape, right? Especially for really large n or for a lot of k, because now in general, this is going to be smaller than that.
很大的k也大的情况,因为这样这就比这个小了,这种情况是分摊。
-
Once I have it sorted I can search it in log n time, but that's still isn't as good as just doing n. And this led to this idea of amortization, which is I need to not only factor in the cost, but how am I going to use it?
一旦对其完成排序,就可以在log，n的时间内对其完成搜索,但是这样做仍然不如n的复杂度,这样做引出了耗时分摊的想法,这时不仅需要考虑耗时的因素？
应用推荐