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If you had a course in probability and statistics, then you'll find it easy to follow, but it's self-contained again.
如果你们学过统计学或者概率论,你们会比较容易理解,也需要你们独立学习
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we have Nala and he meets this man, Rituparna, and this is where a probability theory apparently comes in.
有那勒,他遇到的这个人,叫睿都巴若那,这就到了讲概率论的时候了
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If you follow through from the independent theory, there's one of the basic relations in probability theory-- it's called the binomial distribution.
如果继续往下看,在概率论里有一个基本的概念,叫做二项分布
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The mathematical theory of probability was unknown until that time and you can see that insurance suddenly made an appearance at that time.
在那之前,概率的数学理论,是不存在的,而随着概率论的出现,保险业也突然出现了
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I wanted to talk about that with a little bit of reference to probability theory and so that's what I will be covering.
讲到这些内容的时候,会涉及一些概率论的知识,这些就是下一讲的内容
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Anyway, the story ends and Nala goes back and is now armed with probability theory, we assume.
不管怎样,在故事结尾,那勒回去了,我们知道他已经掌握了概率论的知识
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I think it was the invention of probability theory that really started it and that's why I think theory is very important in finance.
我认为是概率论的诞生,真正促生了保险业,那也是为什么,我认为理论对于金融来说非常重要
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You're not going to need to know a lot about this for this course, but this is--I wanted to get the basic ideas down.
对于本门课程来说,你不必,对刚才讲的概率的知识有很深入的了解,我只想介绍一些概率论的基本概念
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It's interesting that this person uses the word calculation; this person has the idea--this was-- 1600 was around the year when probability theory was invented.
有意思的是,这个人用了"计算"这个词,这个人想到了这个主意,概率论正是1600年左右产生的
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Another important concept in probability theory that we will use a lot is expected value, the mean, or average-- those are all roughly interchangeable concepts.
概率论中另外一个常用的重要的概念是,期望值或者也叫均值,这两个概念可以互换
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The idea of probability theory is that no, you can't change things, there are all these objective laws of probability out there that guide everything.
而概率论的观点是,不,你无法改变事物,世间万物遵循客观的概率,它们即是定律
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Ian Hacking, who wrote a history of probability theory, searched through world literature for any reference to a probability and could find none anywhere before 1600.
伊恩·哈金为概率论追根溯源,他查遍世界所有关于概率的文献,发现无法追溯到十七世纪以前
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It really is probability theory and the idea of spreading risk through risk pooling.
就是概率论,以及通过风险汇聚来分摊风险
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One of the first principles of probability theory is called the multiplication rule.
概率论的最基本的原则,有一条叫乘法原理
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Hacking believes that there were many gambling theorists who invented probability theory at various times in history but never wrote it down and kept it as a secret.
哈金相信历史上有很多赌博理论家,曾多次构想了概率论,但从来没有记录下来,并且恐为人知
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In the second lecture, I talked about the pooling of risks and the basic theme of that lecture was that we now have a mathematical theory, probability theory.
第二课，我讲了风险汇聚及分摊,那节课的主题是,一门数学理论，即概率论。
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One of the first principles of probability is the idea of independence.
概率论中最基本的一个原则,就是独立性的概念
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What Zelizer reported was that some life insurance companies surmounted this problem by changing the pitch, by telling their salespeople, don't try to explain probability theory to these people.
泽利泽发现有些寿险公司,通过改变营销思路克服了这个难题,他们告诉自己的推销员,不要试图给你的客户讲概率论
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Anyway, that shows that I think probability theory does have a long history, but-- it not being an intellectual discipline-- it didn't really inform a generation of finance theory.
不管怎样,这个故事表明概率论,确实有很悠久的历史,但,那时它并非以学科形式存在,也没有对金融理论的产生有过指导意义
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The institution of insurance is something that really came in--it's one of the earliest-- I consider it a division of finance-- really came in the 1600s when probability theory was invented.
保险机构的出现,我认为这是金融业中,最早的分支之一,大约在17世纪,概率论刚刚诞生
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But, you know that this is based on theory.
但注意,这个公式是基于概率论的
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Probability theory is really a movement away from that.
概率论实在与此无关
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I wanted to say one more thing because I realize that you have to-- your first problem set will cover this-- is to talk about the concept that applies probability theory to Economics.
我还想提一点,因为我意识到...,你们的练习题中会涉及到这个,概率论在经济学中的,应用的问题
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I'm not going to expand on this because I can't get into-- This is not a course in probability theory but I'm hopeful that you can see the formula and you can apply it.
我不准备拓展这一部分,毕竟这节课不是概率论,但我希望你们能记住这个公式,并且学会应用
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The real insurance industry, as I mentioned before, began in the 1600s with the invention of probability theory and with the invention of life tables for-- the invention of actuarial science; but, it grew slowly.
正如我刚才所提到的,真正的保险始于17世纪,这得益于概率论,寿命表以及,精算学的产生,但是,它的发展很缓慢
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So, it was in the 1600s that probability theory started to get written down as a theory and many things then happened in that century that, I think, are precursors both to finance and insurance.
所以直到十七世纪,概率论,才被记录下来,形成理论,并且在那个世纪里诞生了,金融和保险的雏形
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So that's the basic idea.
这是概率论中最基本的概念
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The probability theory is new.
但概率论是个新知识
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