Today, it's priced given the best-known information and so tomorrow it's equally likely to go up or down.
由最广泛的信息所决定的,所以明天它涨价和降价的概率是相等的。
For example, I might believe that it's equally likely that they choose Left and Right, is that right?
举个例子吧,我可能认为他选择,左和右的可能性是相同的,对吗
How likely are all the inputs, are they all equally likely, or are they going to depend on other things? And that may depend on the user, so you can't kind of get at that.
他们大致相同么?,他们依赖于其他事情么?,输入也跟用户有关,因此你没法完全得出结果来。
You might say the probability that you toss a coin and it comes up heads is a half, because it's equally likely to be heads and tails.
如果你抛一枚硬币,正面向上的概率一定是50%,因为正反哪一面向上的可能性是相同的
And we've already agreed that if I think it's equally likely they're going to choose right and left, that there's a probability ?
而且我们已经计算过了,如果我觉得对手,选左选右的概率相同,即他们选右的概率为1/2时
So what's my expected payoff from choosing Up where I believe the other person's going to choose Left and Right, equally likely? It's what?
那么在我对手选择左或右,可能性相同的情况下,我的预期收益会是什么样的呢
So we're allowing you to, for example, to hold the belief that it's equally likely that the goalie dives left or dives right.
所以,打个比方,这里也可以包括,门将扑向左右两路概率相同的情况
And we know that Down does best if I think it was equally likely that the person was going to choose Left and Right.
我们还知道如果我们认为对手,选左或者是右的可能性相同的情况下,下是此情况下最好的策略
Let's look at my payoffs from choosing these three options Up, Middle, and Down, if I think it's equally likely that my opponent will choose Left and Right.
我们来看一下我从上中下这三个策略中,分别能获得什么样的收益,如果我认为我对手,选择左或右的可能性相同
What about my expected payoff from choosing Middle against , so in this case where I think it's equally likely that my opponents going to choose Left or Right?
那我在情况下,选中的预期收益是什么呢,在此情况下我依然认为,对手选左选右的可能性相同
So equally likely was probabilities of ? and ?.
这个?与?的可能性是类似的
So what we're going to look at is the expected payoff of Up versus, let me call it a : a being equally likely that my opponent chooses Left and Right.
所以接下来我们看看在我认为对手,选择左右的可能性相同下的预期收益,我们把它称为
So it turns out that, as the gentleman out there said, if I thought it was equally likely that my opponent was going to choose Left or Right, then actually my best choice, my best response is to choose Down.
这个结果和刚才那位先生说的,如果我觉得我对手,选择左或右的可能性相同的话,这时候最好的选择,也就是说我的最佳对策是选下
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