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So Jeremy would say, forget that, it looks pretty sound that we have an equity premium so we can trust that.
因此杰里米会说,别管它们了,发达国家存在股权溢价很正常,因此我们笃信这个结论
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For Jeremy Siegel, in the latest edition of his book, the equity premium is 4% a year since 1802.
杰里米·西格尔在他最新一版的书中讲到,从1802年开始,股权溢价就是每年4%
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If you're investing with a long time horizon, having an equity bias makes sense; stocks go up in the long run.
如果进行长线投资,且存在股权偏好,那么从长期看,股票是上涨的
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If we want to look going forward at the equity premium, we have to know how much--what's the politics?
如果想预测未来的股权溢价是多少,我们必须知道...政治环境将会如何
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The overall conclusions are that, with respect to asset allocation, you want to create an equity-oriented diversified portfolio.
总而言之,在资产配置方面,你要创造一个股权导向的多元化投资组合
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We found an equity premium-- or actually Jeremy Siegel's book gave an equity premium of 4% a year.
我们发现了股权溢价的存在,根据杰里米·西格尔所计算得出的结果,股权溢价大约为每年4%
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.. The equity premium is the-- 2.8% this short-term 2.8% is the riskless return, historically, for a period of almost 200 years.
股权溢价就是-,这个短期无风险投资收益率是，是根据近200年的数据得出的。
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What I want to do, I want to talk about Jeremy Siegel's book and the equity premium puzzle.
接下来我要做的是，我想谈论下杰里米·西格尔的书,和股权溢价之谜。
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The take-aways are that an equity bias is an absolutely sensible underpinning for investors with long time horizons but that diversification is important.
对于长期投资者来说,股权偏好的存在,是长期投资获利的重要基础,但是分散投资也很重要
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After I wrote the book, Morningstar did a much more comprehensive study of every single one of the equity categories that they follow.
在我写完这本书之后,晨星公司对他们跟踪研究的每种股权资产,做了更进一步的研究
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There were seventeen categories of equity mutual funds and they compared the dollar-weighted to the time-weighted returns.
其中一共是17种股权共同基金,将它们的货币加权回报率,和时间加权回报率进行比较
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What we call this is the--I want to emphasize it, I'll write this again--the equity premium puzzle.
我们称之为...我想强调一下,我再写一次,股权溢价之谜
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Every one of them has a positive equity premium; although the U.S. is on the high side of them all, it's not the best.
这些国家都存在正股权溢价,美国的股权溢价相对很多国家较高,但不是最高的
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Let's not just look at the United States; let's look at every country of the world and let's see if they have an equity premium.
不要光看美国,我们观察下世界上所有的国家,看看他们是否也存在股权溢价现象
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He's really saying that this equity premium is enduring and we should believe it.
他会说这个股权溢价确实存在,我们应该相信这一结论
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Two tenets, an equity bias for portfolios with a long time horizon and diversification.
两个原则,长期投资中的股权偏好,以及分散投资
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He created just about the biggest private equity firm from scratch in 1985 and I guess they just went public and they have a huge market cap.
他于1985年白手起家,创建了最大的私募股权公司,后来公司上市,市值相当可观
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The country that has the highest equity premium-- and that's for the whole twentieth century, they couldn't go back to 1802-- the most successful country is Sweden and after that Australia.
拥有最高股权溢价的国家是...,我指整个20世纪期间,他们所用的数据无法追溯到1802年...,股权溢价最高的国家是瑞典,澳大利亚紧随其后
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Typically, we think of it as a stock option.
通常我们把这个看作是股权认购
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First, in terms of equity bias.
第一,股权偏好
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Over the past twenty years, we've generated 15.6% per annum return, but that headline number obviously has a lot to do with the equity orientationof the portfolio but doesn't describe the importance of the diversification.
过去20年间,我们的年收益率达到15.6%,虽然媒体头条报道这一收益率,总强调与投资组合的股权导向有很大关系,但没有描述出投资多元化的重要性
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For the ten years ended June 30,2005, it returned 9.9% per year and then the average return for the actively managed equity fund was 9.6% per year, so we're back to that thirty basis points.
截至2005年6月30日的10年间,该指数年收益率为9.9%,而主动管理型股权基金的年平收益率为9.6%,我们落后30个基点
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So 90% of your portfolio is in domestic marketable securities and only 10% is invested in things like real estate or venture capital or private equity -hardly enough to make a difference in terms of the portfolios returns.
于是90%的投资都在本国有价证券中,仅10%用于比如不动产,风险资本或私募股权投资,这一小块几乎对投资回报,没有什么作用
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When you look at each of those individual asset classes -domestic equities, foreign equities, bonds, real assets, absolute return and private equity -each of those individual asset classes is going to be relatively well-diversified in terms of exposures to individual positions or individual securities.
当你观察每一种资产,比如国内股权,国外股权,债券,不动产,绝对收益和私募股权,这其中每一种,比起单一头寸或单一证券,风险都是相对分散的
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Well,that's going to inflate the numbers too because the only managers that kind of raise their hand and say, hey I've got this interesting new approach to managing domestic equities--or whatever the asset class is -are the ones that have succeeded.
当然是会让指数起点偏高,因为经理人倾向于提供那些,举手说找到有趣的新方法,来管理国内股权投资,或其他投资的,成功的历史数据
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