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Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析，我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益，特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
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If you accept my estimates and you accept the capital asset pricing model, that would have to be true.
如果你同意我的估算,而且认同资本资本资产定价模型，那这种投资组合就会带来最大收益。
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If our estimates are off then the hypothesis makes no sense, so maybe there's no relationship between dietary fat and breast cancer.
如果评估是无关联的,那这个假说也就没有意义,那么在膳食脂肪和乳腺癌之间,也许没有任何关系
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The underlying estimates may not accord with your belief or your intuitive sense of common sense.
各项资产有关估算结果可能与你的预想,或直觉不相符合
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I did it myself using my data, but it would always look more or less like this-- slightly different positions if people use different estimates.
这幅图是我根据自己的数据画出来的，有效边界的图形大致就是如此-,随着人们采用不同的估计值,其位置会发生微小的变化。
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Again, I don't want to make too much of my estimates because different people would estimate these things in different ways, but that's the theory.
再说一次，我不想太过强调我的估算,因为不同的人,会用不同的方法估算这些数据，但这只是个理论。
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From then on,if you accept the analysis and the assumptions or the estimates that underlie it, then we pretty much know how to construct portfolios.
如果你们理解了整个分析过程,假设前提以及各项资产的有关估算,就能知道该怎样建立一个投资组合
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Some people might disagree with that, they might not take my estimates.
有人也许会不同意我的观点，他们可能不采取我的估计值。
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Okay. All right, so have you got your estimates?
你们完成估测了吗
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Diet, as we said before, is having a big impact, so estimates are that you can attribute two point six million deaths per year globally to low intake of fruits and vegetables.
如我们之前所说,饮食对健康至关重要,所以大致估计每年全球,有260万人的死亡可归结于,水果与蔬菜的摄入过少
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If you agree with my estimates, then you should do this as an investor, you should hold only some mixture of this tangency portfolio, which is 9% oil, 27% stocks, and 64% bonds.
如果你赞同我的估计值，那么作为一个投资者的话你应该这么做，你应该只持有,符合这个切线投资组合比例的投资，即9%的石油，27%的股票，和64%的债券。
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Those same estimates say that if you could turn that around, that if the world could eat the recommended level of fruits and vegetables, that you'd reduce the prevalence of heart disease by 31%.
反过来说就是,如果大家都能食用适量的水果和蔬菜,那心脏病的普遍性将降低31%
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All right now, now what I'd like you to do is just sort of do a guestimate in your mind of the percentage errors you might have made overall in these estimates, and I'll come back and ask you in a minute.
好了,现在,现在我希望你们,在脑海中估算下你们预测的百分误差,你们可以就总值做一个估算,我会在一分钟后问你们
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He estimates, for his purposes, and he shows you calculations of the efficient portfolio frontier.
他用自己的角度估算了参数,他还给出了计算有效边界的方法。
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The way you would go about it, if you're a portfolio manager, is you have to come up with estimates of the inputs to these formulas-- that means the expected returns, the standard deviations, and the covariances.
你所要做的，如果你是一个资产经理，你要做的事情就是,对公式里面的一些参数进行估计-,那些参数包括预期收益，标准差，和协方差。
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I don't find that my analysis is profound in the final answer, I just took some estimates using my data and, again, we could-- if someone wanted to argue with us they could argue with my estimates of the expected returns of the standard deviations and the covariances, but not with this theory.
我在计算过程中并没有做太深入的分析，我只是用我的数据做了一下大概的估计,我再说一次，我们可以-,如果有人想就这个问题与我们争辩,他们可以争论我对期望收益的估计,或是争论标准差和协方差的估计值，但并不会针对理论本身。
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