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So, Case and I did identical questionnaires in Los Angeles and Milwaukee and these are median price expectations.
于是科斯和我在洛杉矶和密尔沃基,做了完全相同的问卷调查,并且调查出了中间价格的期望值
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As the years go by, you notice that Milwaukee is starting look more and more like Los Angeles.
年复一年,你会发现密尔沃基的情况,与洛杉矶越来越相似
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There's something about Los Angeles that's different from Milwaukee and that is that in Los Angeles there's just a history of volatile markets.
洛杉矶与密尔沃基,在某件事上是有差别的,那就是在洛杉矶,不稳定的市场行情已有一段历史了
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What about Milwaukee? Nobody from Milwaukee -I might be insulting Milwaukeeans when I talk about this--not really.
有从密尔沃基来的吗,没人,我谈论这个时有可能,会得罪密尔沃基人,开个玩笑
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One is, in 1988 home prices were rising rapidly in Los Angeles, not so in Milwaukee, so people were just extrapolating the price increase.
其一,1988年,洛杉矶房价上升的势头很猛,密尔沃基却没有,所以人们推测房价会继续上涨
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If you look at Milwaukee, the employment figures don't look that much different than Los Angeles.
如果你看下密尔沃基就业数据看起来,与洛杉矶没有太大差别
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If you compare that with Milwaukee, they thought only 4%, which is about the inflation rate.
如果你对比一下密尔沃基,他们认为只有4%,还包括通胀率
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What caused--that's the-- I wanted to show you one city -I actually do a short comparison between a couple of cities -Los Angeles and Milwaukee.
原因是什么,我给你们看看一座城市,我在两座城市之间做了个简单比较,洛杉矶和密尔沃基
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There wasn't as much agreement on that, but one of the names suggested was Milwaukee; nothing has ever happened there in terms of real estate.
没有统一的答案,但是有人提到了应该是密尔沃基,那里的房地产市场有如死寂一般
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We asked people whether they had a perception of excitement directly and in Los Angeles, in 1988, 54% said yes; whereas, in Milwaukee only 21% said yes.
我们做过调查,询问人们是否切身感受到房价飚升,1988年54%的洛杉矶人说有,但是在密尔沃基只有21%的人这样认为
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Los Angeles and Milwaukee were tied in 2006 for their expectations.
006年洛杉矶和密尔沃基的,预期走势持平
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So, there was something different between Los Angeles and Milwaukee.
洛杉矶,和密尔沃基有些不同
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We compare Milwaukee--look at that, isn't that amazing?
再跟密尔沃基比较,看到没,令人震惊,不是吗
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Milwaukee has been extremely steady over this period.
密尔沃基在这段期间内非常平稳
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I think what's happening is that we're becoming more national and Milwaukeeans are starting to think more like Angelinos that it's one boom so they start to expect it to happen in Milwaukee.
我认为这是由于,随着市场的全国化,密尔沃基人的想法向洛杉矶人看齐,这是一个繁荣期,密尔沃基希望他们也会迎来楼市春天
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In Milwaukee, it was only 27%.
在密尔沃基,这种担忧当时只有27%
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The percent who think it's the best investment is higher in Los Angeles than in Milwaukee, and since the peak of the bubble in 2003, it's been declining in Los Angeles but, surprisingly, rising in Milwaukee.
认为房地产是最佳投资选择的人群,在洛杉矶居民中所占比例远高于密尔沃基,自从2003年房产泡沫达到最高峰,洛杉矶房价就一直在下跌,令人惊异的是密尔沃基房价仍在上涨
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You notice Milwaukee is going up.
但密尔沃基的预期却在上升
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Milwaukee--is there someone up there?
到底有没有人从密尔沃基来啊
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In 1988, when there was a boom in California, but of course not in Milwaukee, the average person in Los Angeles thought home prices would go up 10% a year for the next ten years --that's the median, I'm sorry.
988年加利福尼亚出现了繁荣,当然,在密尔沃基则没有出现,洛杉矶的人们普遍都认为房屋价格,会在未来十年内以每年10%的速度,上升,应该是中间价,不好意思
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