I computed the returns on the stocks, bonds, and oil for every year from 1983 and I computed the average returns, which I take as the expected returns, I took the standard deviations, and I took the covariance.
我计算了从1983年以来每年的股票,债券和石油的收益,从而得出平均收益率,这些平均收益率作为预期收益率,然后算得标准差及协方差。
Underlying this analysis, we have estimates of the expected returns on assets, notably, the expected returns on stocks and bonds.
凭借这个分析,我们可以估算出资产预期投资收益,特别是股票和债券的预期收益。
So even if, on average, the stock is expected to not move at all from where it starts, some stocks will be expected to just trundle along without much change, not very volatile.
所以即使平均而言,股票应该是不会,和开盘的时候有什么区别,有一些股票可能会,没什么变化,不是很反复无常。
I also have up on the website some questions that I asked investors about what they think about picking stocks.
我在网站上也上传了一些思考题,是我曾经问过一些投资者的问题,他们怎样挑选股票
They show the expected return on stocks versus bonds or short-term debt for a whole range of countries.
他们对这些国家的股票预期收益与,国债或者短期债券作出比较。
It surprises many people that stocks have paid such an enormous premium over the return on short-term debt.
很多人没有想到的是,股票相比短期债券而言,存在一个巨大的溢价。
I computed the average return on stocks over that time period and I computed the average return on bonds over that time period.
我计算了那个时间段的股票平均收益率,和债券平均收益率。
I can try other portfolios; this one right here--I'm pointing to a point on the pink line-- that point right there, 50% stocks, 50% bonds.
还可以尝试其它组合;,这一点,粉色曲线上我指的这一点-,表示50%的股票,50%的债券。
This is the return on stocks for a period of almost 200 years.
这个是200年内股票的投资收益率。
Of course, other stocks are held by institutions on their behalf, but in terms of direct ownership, homes are the main thing that people own.
当然,他们还通过金融机构,间接持有股票,但从直接持有的角度来看,人们拥有的主要财产就是住宅
The thing that is very interesting that he finds is the difference, 4%, between the historical real return on stocks and the historical real return on bonds.
非常有趣的是,他发现历史实际股票收益,和历史实际债券收益之间,存在4%的差异。
What Siegel emphasized--the book is really about this-- he talks about what is the expected return of stocks and what is the expected return of bonds and so on.
西格尔强调的是。。。这书真正讲的是-,他讨论了什么是股票预期投资收益,以及什么是预期投资债券等等内容。
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