Then the--so the term structure was downward-sloping until about two and a half years and then it was upward sloping.

期限结构线先向下倾斜,在到期期限过了两年半的时点后,才缓慢回升

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, that is Irving Fisher's diagram in a nutshell, but I think it's--so what does it say about the term structure?

以上是对欧文·费雪图表的概述,这个图怎样说明期限结构呢

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

I mean a blanket term, a guiding concept, a transcendental signified, something that explains the nature of the structure and something also, as Derrida says, which allows for limited free play within the structure; but at the same time the structure has this kind of boundary nature.

是一个概括性称呼，一个引领概念，一个超验所指，它解释了这个结构的内涵，正如德里达所说，它允许在结构内有限的自由游戏;,但同时这个结构也有限性。

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The theory of the term structure is the theory of how interest rates differ according to maturity or term.

利率期限结构理论就是,怎样由不同的期限,产生不同的利率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, according to the expectations theory augmented with liquidity preference-- This strongly upward-sloping term structure in 2003 would reflect two things.

所以,根据结合了流动性偏好的,预期理论,2003年期限结构中表现出的,强烈上扬趋势反映了两方面的因素

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, I've got here a term structure; well, the term structure is the plot of yield-to-maturity against time-to-maturity.

我这有一张期限结构图,期限结构其实是,到期收益率与到期期限之间的关系图

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The term structure is one of the most interesting things in economics because it shows the price of time at various maturities.

经济学中,期限结构是个有趣的话题,因为它揭示了不同到期期限的时间价值

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Neither do the dealers determine the term structure; the dealers have to buy and sell at prices that are in the market.

中间商也不能决定,中间商只能按照市场价进行交易

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The Federal Funds Rate was 5.5% and then the whole term structure -all the way--almost all the way.

联邦基金利率是5.5%,整个期限结构图,几乎自始至终...

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

This is January of this year, before the Fed cut interest rates, and this is the term structure.

这是今年一月,联储局降息前的期限结构图

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Now, I want to talk about the term structure of interest rates and that's my next plot here.

接下来我要讲利率期限结构,下一张图是

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

That's because on the date that I got this term structure everybody knew the Fed was cutting rates and they got it exactly right.

在我拿到这幅期限结构图的当天,市场获悉了联储局降息的消息,正如预测的一样

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The Fed has these auctions but it auctions them off at what price the public will pay, so the Fed doesn't determine the term structure.

联储局公开拍卖债券,但只有当公众愿意以特定价格支付时,这些债券才能成交,所以联储局不能决定期限结构

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

We're talking about discount bonds, and then coupon-carrying bonds, and then talk about the term structure of interest rates and why we have interest rates.

我们先讲贴现债券,然后是附息债券,再讲讲利率的期限结构,以及为什么要有利率

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So, you can see the term structure doesn't go up between overnight and three months.

从隔夜拆借利率到三月远期利率这段区间内,利率期限结构没有上扬

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

That means, in the simplest-- it's called the expectations theory of the term structure.

这意味着,在最简单的利率期限结构理论,即利率期限结构的预期理论中

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

The upward-sloping term structure means that the forward rates are at higher levels.

尾部上扬的期限结构表明,远期利率处于高位

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

What he says is those forward rates are what people think interest rates will be in the future and that's called the expectations theory of the term structure.

这里所指的远期利率就是人们预期的,未来利率,我们将这种理论称作,利率期限结构的预期理论

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

It's one of the questions of economics -what determines the term structure?

经济学中的一个老问题是,期限结构是由什么决定的呢

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

He said that we shouldn't think that the-- the simplest story of the term structure of interest rates, which he expounded there, is that forward rates equal expected future interest rates.

他提出,我们不应该认为,他在书中写道,对于利率期限结构,最简略的概括,是远期利率等于未来利率的期望值

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

So you--it doesn't--this theory doesn't say a whole lot about what the term structure will look like but it suggests that it's determined by the interplay of lots of economic factors.

这个理论没有详细说明期限结构,期限结构是什么样子的,但它指出了这是由,经济因素间的相互作用决定的

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Forward rates I wrote a survey article years ago about the term structure of interest rates and I wanted to find out who was the originator of the term "forward rate."

远期利率,很多年前我写过一篇,研究利率期限结构的文章,我想知道谁是"远期利率"这个词的创始人

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

He had a diagram, which illustrated what is the ultimate cause of interest, and it helps us to think about this diagram whenever we try to understand the term structure.

费雪教授用一张图,来解释决定利息的本质因素,每当我们试图理解期限结构时,就会用到这张图

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Now, the term structure was pretty much upward-sloping everywhere.

这里期限结构的走势显然一直向上倾斜

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Going further out, the term structure just kept rising.

随着时间期限延长,期限结构走势持续上升

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

Look how--this is as of earlier this year; the Federal Funds Rate was at around 4% and it has this huge drop in the term structure and then it starts the upward-sloping.

这是今年早些时候的图形,当时联邦利率徘徊在4%,但期限结构,在此处急转直下之后又开始掉头向上

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I showed you the term structure.

你们看过利率期限结构图了

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This is the term structure just a short while ago-- of December 2006--very different.

这是不久前,06年12月的期限结构图,形状很不一样

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选

I want to compare it with other examples of the term structure recently.

我想将这与其他近期的期限结构图比较下

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选