And so, what happens is that he goes to war in the summer of 1870, without any allies, against Prussia and its South German allies, and he thinks he's going to win.

因此,战争在一八七零年夏天爆发,法军孤立无援,单独对抗普鲁士及其南德诸邦盟友,他自认为必胜无疑

耶鲁公开课 - 1871年后的法国课程节选

As a matter of fact,if things were perfectly efficiently priced, there wouldn't be any opportunity to generate excess returns and if you make active bets--if you make bets against the market -then whether you win or lose has to do with luck.

事实上,如果资产都是有效定价的,那么根本不可能获得任何超额收益,如果你主动一搏,要从市场中获利,那么无论得失都只能靠运气了

耶鲁公开课 - 金融市场课程节选