这个世纪悄悄过去了，带给人们的却是一个恰恰相反的忧虑：人口衰退开始初露端倪。

Now that worry has evaporated, and this century is spooking itself with the opposite fear: the onset of demographic decline.

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第二种，30%的可能。正视美国进入衰退，带给全世界严重的负面影响。

Scenario 2. Our main risk scenario, with a 30% probability, envisages the US falling into recession, with substantial fallout in the rest of the world.

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