近十年来，长期地震预测或地震潜势研究的新趋势是：由确定性分析逐渐转向概率性分析。

During the recent decade, a new tendency of long-term earthquake forecasting or seismic potential study has been shifting gradually from deterministic analysis to probabilistic analysis.

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文章主要对板块运动、岩石圈应力场、断层力学、活动构造、长期地震预测方面的新进展做了概略介绍。

This paper mainly Outlines the new progress made in plate motion, lithostatic stress field, fault mechanics, active structure and long-term earthquake prediction.

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人们大多认为给出严重地震即将发生的时间地点的准确、长期预测是不可能的。

Most reckon it will never be possible to give accurate, long-term predictions of when and where serious quakes will strike.

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