There are outside chances for David O Russell for Silver Lining Playbook, Michael Haneke for Amour and Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild.

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While still among the elite top-five shoo-ins for Best Picture (the others being Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Lining Playbook, and Les Miserables), I think this picture needs strong showings in the early awards season to make a comeback and really challenge Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty at this point.

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Anthony is president of Innosight and the author of The Silver Lining: An Innovation Playbook for Uncertain Times (Harvard Business Press, June 2009).

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