Once the truth dawned and they demanded more pay, unemployment would rise back to its “natural” rate.

一旦真相明了，他们要求更高的工资，失业率又会回升到自然比率。

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And it would require the Fed to have a lot of confidence in its estimate of the natural unemployment rate, a notoriously slippery thing to measure.

而且这也要求美联储对于它所估计的自然失业率数值有足够的信心——这是在测量众所周知的不稳定的数值。

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As you can see, the unemployment rate will never be near to zero and it also fluctuates around its average natural rate.

如图你可以看到，失业率将永远不会接近零，徘徊在它的平均自然增长率水平。

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As US unemployment continues to head south towards its natural rate, and the prospect of an interest rate spike is a possibility, there is one factor that may avert, or at least moderate, an interest rate spike: The yen tsunami, i.e.

FORBES: What May Keep US Interest Rates From Spiking

The Fed may not be able to find a solution quickly due to a division among participants over the natural rate of unemployment and how flexible the FOMC should be with its inflation target, Nomura said.

FORBES: Deep Discussions But No Action Expected At Two-Day FOMC Meeting