Then, there are some who posit this is a cyclical bull market in a secular bear.
For starters, it is quite clear that investors continue to enjoy what most see as a cyclical bull market that began on March 9, 2009.
The first cyclical bull market since the secular bear market began, carried the market back up to its peak of 2000 before the 2007-2009 cyclical bear market took over.
FORBES: This Bull Market Could Hit Old 2000 Peak Before Ending
Does that mean that the current secular bear market will last until 2017, but that the current cyclical bull market will last a couple more years, and not end until it has reached its peak of 2000 again?
FORBES: This Bull Market Could Hit Old 2000 Peak Before Ending
My work strongly suggests that this is the start of a significant correction, or perhaps it was even the top of a cyclical, two-year bull market in a larger, secular bear market.
During both periods there were strong cyclical bull markets every few years, followed each time by a cyclical bear market that kept the market moving sideways, unable to break out into a long-term uptrend.
FORBES: This Bull Market Could Hit Old 2000 Peak Before Ending
There were numerous cyclical bull markets and cyclical bear markets during the 16 years, but it was a time for market-timing not buy and hold.
In secular bear markets the periodic cyclical bull markets can be exciting and profitable, like the 2003-2007 bull market, and the current one, but are only temporary and the secular bear market takes over again.
Cyclical bull markets returned the Dow to 1000 numerous times, but each time a cyclical bear market took back the gains.
In secular bull markets the periodic cyclical bear markets can be devastating, like the 1987 crash, but are only temporary and the bull market resumes to ever higher highs.
The second interesting observation is that 7 out of 8 of the cyclical bull markets within the long term trend lasted for several years, and did not end until the market was back to its level achieved at the peak when the secular bear began.
FORBES: This Bull Market Could Hit Old 2000 Peak Before Ending
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