Whereas big swings in oil prices usually reflect supply shocks, and precious metals are often seen as a safe haven in times of crisis, The Economist's commodity priceindex (which excludes oil and precious metals) has traditionally been a fairly good leading indicator of turning-points in global industrial output.
There is a risk that price rises will peak after the first quarter of next year, if the past effects of higher oil prices start to work their way out of the consumer-price index.
The underlying Solactive Global Oil Equities Index tracks the performance of 25 equal-weighted companies that have shown a high correlation to the spot priceofoil.
Some of this added burden has already come to light in the latest wholesale priceindex, which showed rising oil costs are driving an increase in manufacturing costs.