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The analyst notes that in addition to macro risks to IT spending, FX fluctuations will weigh on end demand.
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Overall, a bevy of macro risks lie on the near term horizon, which could provide underlying support to the yellow metal.
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Also, there remain potential macro risks to the housing sector, which could include a spike in interest rates, which could slow down purchase activity.
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Given the growing macro risks on the horizon and the shortening fuse on those risks, however, we are comfortable buying here and hope to continue buying on any weakness.
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The gain in the market and decline in volatility is somewhat perplexing, given the large macro risks that continue to pervade the global economy and the relatively weak earnings outlook offered by a number of bellwether firms such as FedEx and Hewlett-Packard.
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However, the momentum signals that are used in this are not that overwhelming to me, and you couple this in the face of the tremendous macro headline risks that are out there right now, the numerous land mines that are waiting out there that may or may not ever happen.
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"There are lots of key risks for next year: downside is macro, upside is geopolitics, " says Amrita Sen, oil market analyst at Barclays Capital.
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In his books Macro Markets and The New Financial Order, Shiller plumps for markets to hedge away all kinds of risks.
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