The depth of this plunge is the black swan few saw coming last spring.
Nassim Taleb also addresses regime change in chaotic systems in his book The Black Swan.
FORBES: Chaos Theory, Financial Markets, and Global Weirding
Still plausible is a 10 percent decline if the black swan which is Greece surfaces.
In scientific literature these events are called the emergence of the Black Swan.
Therefore at some point in time, reality, AKA the black swan, will eventually kill the Bernanke put.
And the Black Swan is a famous book about extremely rare events that most financial models cannot predict.
Once the index reaches 100, it is more likely that the black swan event will occur than not occur.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an applied statistician and derivatives trader-turned-philosopher, and author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
These "known unknowns" he dubbed "grey swans", in a reference to Nicholas Nassim Taleb's book "The Black Swan", about the nature of unpredictability.
When I asked when, all the fortune teller could say was that the black swan is aloft and already is stalking the Bernanke put.
Compared to being Fooled By Randomness, the title of his first book, The Black Swan, a rare but powerful event, presents much greater a challenge.
FORBES: More Computational Finance Won't Uncover Black Swan Events
The ability to predict the point of no return, i.e. the amount of movement of the masses which makes it actually probable that the black swan event will occur.
From an investor's perspective, the idea of planning for low-probability, high-consequence events is well treated in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
Natalie Portman is Nina, a young ballerina in a Lincoln Center company who has the temperament to dance the virtuous White Swan but is too frigid to dance the Black Swan.
If our government stays as arrogant as it is, at some point soon the Black Swan will fly and the rest of the world will get smart and dump the dollar.
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More importantly perhaps, it counts Nassim Taleb, who popularized this notion with his best-selling book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable as a member of its research team.
The black swan theory was developed by Nassim Taleb to describe an event that is a complete surprise, has a major impact, and after the fact is rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan (the bestselling econ-philosophy book, not the flick), is someone who has made just such an effort to grace the world with discrete shavings of his perspicacity.
Taleb, author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, recently took the investment industry to task, arguing in a paper that active trading returns amounted to nothing more than luck.
Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, returned to Wharton for a chat with his old finance professor, Richard Herring and the talk makes provocative reading which might send you to Amazon for more.
FORBES: More Computational Finance Won't Uncover Black Swan Events
Whether you are a devotee of the Black Swan Theory or merely another hard-boiled cynic like me, you may now be counted among those who place little comfort in years of accumulated stock market statistics.
If there is a truism we should by now have come to accept, it is to avoid single point extrapolations, look skeptically at the accepted wisdom of the day, and listen for the whistling wings of the Black Swan.
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But Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder expands on the concepts in Fooled and its follow-up The Black Swan and goes far beyond financial markets into a more general theory of randomness and volatility and their importance in life and nature.
FORBES: Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of The Black Swan fame has written a new book titled Anti-Fragile: Things That Gain From Disorder in which he provides a reasoned basis for believing that the current Fed policy will bring us way more inflation and much sooner than expected.
Kuczma is also no stranger to the political risk factor, which also has Russia trading like the constant black swan within the BRICs.
In many ways, a disruption of Saudi oil supply would be the ultimate Black Swan.
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Last year the movie Black Swan quietly opened in a handful of theaters in early December.
Financial strength also helps when the positive black swan (golden swan?) occurs.
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Rather than reduce risk, organize your life, your business or your society in such a way that it benefits from randomness and the occasional Black Swan event.
FORBES: Nassim Taleb's 'Antifragile' Celebrates Randomness In People, Markets
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