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Even though it could retaliate against a hypothetical Iranian or North Korean nuclear attack and obliterate both nations while utilizing only 1 or 2% of its arsenal, the Obama administration is acting as if the theory of deterrence no longer applies.
CNN: Nuclear deterrence could restrain N. Korea, Iran
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The classic theory of deterrence contemplates the state absorbing the first harm, apprehending its perpetrator and then punishing him publicly and proportionally, so as to show potential future harm doers that it does not pay to commit the harm.
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Kennan, whose writings gave birth to the theory of nuclear deterrence, argued passionately but futilely against the development of the hydrogen bomb.
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The classic theory of deterrence presupposes a calculating evildoer who can evaluate the cost-benefits of proposed actions and will act and forbear from acting on the basis of these calculations.
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Consequently, should war break out anytime soon, many thousands of Americans to say nothing of the citizenry of other, friendly Middle Eastern nations may be needlessly sacrificed on the alter of a bizarre theory of deterrence which holds that only the utter inability to defend oneself will prevent an attack.
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In fact, once these often repeated, seemingly immutable laws of deterrence theory are easily refuted, the logic for a robust missile defense system is stronger than ever.
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