That is especially true if, as posited by Matthew Simmons in his compelling new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, much of the world's putative reserve oil in Saudi Arabia is not actually there .

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Add to this the work of Matthew Simmons, who in his 2005 book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, analyzed papers presented at Petroleum Engineering conferences, and concluded that the super-giant Ghawar field would soon enter a period of decline.

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Even during the oil shock of the mid-1970s, world output continued to expand by almost 2% a year.

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