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We're going to assume that everybody knows the possible strategies everyone else could choose and everyone knows everyone else's payoffs.
我们假设,每个人都知道其他人可能选择的策略,每个人都知道其他人的收益
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So again, I'm not claiming these are the only other possible payoffs, but just another possibility to look at.
重申一下,我没说只有这几种可能的收益,这只是其中的一种可能罢了
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You chose Alpha; I'm assuming these were roughly your payoffs, more or less, you were caring about your grades.
你选择的是α,我想这差不多就是你的收益了吧,你关注自己的成绩
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Because I thought the payoffs - the two different payoffs that I could have gotten-- were highest if I chose Alpha.
因为我发现,如果我选α的话,我得到的两种结果是最优的
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The payoffs are lower, Okay. So here's an abbreviated version of that, I mean it's perhaps a little bit longer.
回报较低,我有一个比较简约的说法,我是说可能有点长
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Finally, let's do it in green, let's look at the payoffs, the expected payoffs if I shoot to the right.
最后,用绿线来表示吧,我们来看看我从右路射门的预期收益
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If these are my payoffs I should go ahead and choose Alpha because that way I end up getting 3.
如果我关心我成绩我应该直接选α,因为那样我能得到3单位效用
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No, but the pay, the way they value, the way of valuing each-- Okay, so the payoffs may be different.
但是结果,他们关心的东西不同,结果导致收益不同
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We change the payoffs, we change what people cared about, and we get a very different game with a very different outcome.
我们改变了收益,我们改变了目的,那我们就改变了博弈,改变了结果
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Not just talking about it, but actually changing the outcomes actually and changing the payoffs, changing the incentives.
这不是说说而已,但它确实改变了结果,改变了收益,也改变了动机
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That may or may not work -- I'm not optimistic -- but at least it's the same idea. We're changing payoffs.
这似乎无济于事,我对此也并不乐观,但至少我们得承认,它改变了收益
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Now we have payoffs that can really switch the question to a normative question: what should you do?
由此我们就把,它转化成了一个名义问题,你应该怎么做
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These are roughly... Well, let me put up the payoffs for this game and then I'll explain them.
差不多就是这样,我先把收益写一下吧,一会再来解释
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We need to give a little bit more structure on the payoff before I get to the payoffs.
在告诉大家收益之前,还需要知道一些别的东西
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This has outcomes in it, it's an outcome matrix, but it isn't a game, because for a game we need to know payoffs.
这个游戏有不同的结果,我们用结果矩阵来表示,但是它不是一个博弈,因为我们必须知道收益才能进行博弈
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So we can't really start analyzing a game until we know what people care about, and until we know what the payoffs are.
只有明白人们关心什么,知道人们的收益是什么之后,我们才能真正开始分析这个博弈
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And let's start by considering my payoffs on this picture, just to help myself a bit, let me put some points in here.
我们从在图上表示预期收益开始,稍微等我一下,我先标注出来几个点
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A contract is more then communication, a contract is communication with teeth. It actually changes the payoffs.
协议的效力大于口头约定,协议是有违约责任的,它影响收益
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My payoffs are going to be evil-git payoffs, so they come from the matrix up there.
我的收益就是饭桶恶魔的收益,收益和之前的矩阵是一样的
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However, once we know what your payoffs are, once we know what your goals are, perhaps Game Theory can you help you get there.
然而一旦你知道了个人的收益,一旦你确立了目标,博弈论能帮助你达成目标
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So I promised a while ago now, that we were going to come back and look at this game under some other possible payoffs.
我保证,我们以后还会讨论这些在,其它博弈下的收益情况
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So here are their payoffs and once again the basic structure of the game hasn't changed.
这就是他们的收益,这次博弈的基本结构还是不变
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It's much easier to figure out my own payoffs than to figure out my opponent's payoffs.
弄清自己的收益总是要比,弄清别人的收益要容易
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And what we're going to do today is analyze this game under both those possible payoffs.
接下来我们分别用不同收益,来分析一下这个博弈
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So here are the payoffs: Let's just map the notation we just developed into this game.
收益是这样的,让我们来看一下这个博弈中的符号
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So the basic lesson is that payoffs matter, but let me say it a different way.
最基本的结论就是收益很重要,让我们换种方式来解释
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While we're here, let's just mention that things will get more complicated in a world where I don't actually know the payoffs of my opponent.
现实中我并不知道,我对手的收益到底是什么样的,这会使事情变得更加复杂
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So it could be--From Hannibal's point of view he doesn't know which pass you're going to defend, but let's have a look at his payoffs.
站在汉尼拔的立场,他应该,不知道你会防守哪条路,但让我们看看他的收益
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On the vertical axis I'll put two vertical axes in, just for the sake of things on the vertical axis I'll put my expected payoffs.
坐标系的纵轴,由于种种原因,我花了两个纵轴,纵轴表示我的预期收益
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These are people--people with these payoffs are people who only care about their own grades.
有这样的动机的人,他们只在乎自己的成绩
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