When they invented fire insurance, in the 1600s, there was a lot of skepticism because anyone can burn down their house.

十七世纪时，人们发明了火险，当时存在很多质疑,因为任何人都可以烧毁他们的房子。

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You don't want your house to burn down,

你可不想让你的房子给烧毁，

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It could be me that-- my cabin could burn down and I would freeze to death in the winter.

因为也许中招的会是我-,我的房子可能被烧毁,冬天我可能会被冻死。

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If the probability is 1 in 1,000 that a house burns down and there are 1,000 houses, then the probability that they all burn down is 1/1000 to the 1000th power, which is virtually zero.

如果一栋房子着火的概率是千分之一,然后假设有1000栋房子,那么这一千栋房子全都着火被烧掉的概率,就等于千分之一的一千次方,基本上就是0了

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They said, it's not going to work because you have to decide how much the house is insured for and then anybody--If you ever make a mistake and you insure it for too much, then the people who realize they've got one on the insurance company-- they've insured the house for more than it's worth-- they'll burn down their house and collect the money.

他们说，火险根本无法实施,因为你必须判断,这房子的保价是多少,一旦你出现了一些失误,保价评估得过高，那些意识到他们可能会从,保险公司赚利的人们-,即保险公司的保价高于房子的实际价值-,他们就会烧掉自己的房子来赚钱。

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It's the problem that sometimes people knock over an oil lamp in their home and they burn their own house down.

有时候会出现这种问题,一个人把自己家里的油灯弄翻了,然后把自己的房子点着了

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I get fire insurance on my house and so I behave badly: I deliberately burn the house down to collect on my insurance.

我为我的房子投了火险，于是我就：,我故意烧毁房屋,以便领走保险金。

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It's not going to burn any other houses down since it's just completely independent of anything else.

由于火灾是独立事件,他的房子着火了并不会烧毁别人的房子

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