For all the disappointment about her fund-raising, Mrs Clinton still remains the most likely Democratic champion. She is almost 20 points ahead of Mr Obama in the latest Gallup poll, and appeals much more strongly to blue-collar workers. Messrs Obama and Edwards are conveniently splitting the anti-Clinton vote. The Democratic Party has a long history of anti-establishment candidates, such as Eugene McCarthy and Gary Hart, who surged to prominence on talk of “new politics” only to collapse in confusion. But Mr Obama is as impressive an insurgent as the party has seen in years. And new-politics-toting insurgents do not always lose out to the establishment: just ask Bill Clinton.

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